What is Russia Thinking?

There was no immediate clue to the Russians’ intentions a week after their tanks and bombers attacked Georgia in retaliation for Georgia’s attempt to retake a disputed province by force.

Russian troops allowed some humanitarian supplies into the strategic city of Gori but otherwise continued their blockade.

The cease-fire document sets out no specific penalties or deadlines. It contains concessions to Russia that Saakashvili obviously found hard to swallow. Russia could retain peacekeeping forces in the separatist region of South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, and the forces would have a broader mandate in South Ossetia.

Even if Russia fully complies with the cease-fire, the Bush administration says there will be more consequences to come. Bush’s advisers are settling on penalties that would be intentionally modest and subtle, such as continuing to exclude Russia’s foreign minister from discussions among his counterparts in elite gatherings of the world’s leading economies.

The idea is to give Moscow the diplomatic cold shoulder while offering face-saving leeway for Russia to turn away from a mentality the West sees as throwback to its empire days. Russia would then have motivation, and some wiggle room, to seek inclusion in Western economic, political and security institutions.

In the words of Sting, "we hope the Russians love their children too".

Technorati Tags: russia, south ossetia, abkhazia, gori, georgia, hope the russians love their children too 

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